Understanding National Debt
Imagine yourself as a household with an annual income of $75 but with a necessary budget of $100. The need to bridge this financial gap compels you to borrow $25, accumulating a debt burden. If you are to continue doing this every year, your household will continue to accumulate debt that will later become unsustainable. This is Malawi’s current status, where the disparity between revenue and expenditure has led to a burgeoning national debt. While presenting the 2024-2025 budget in Malawi’s parliament, Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs Mr. Simplex Chithyola Banda mentioned that the country’s debt is currently pegged at K12.56 trillion. He also said that the current K5.98 trillion budget has a deficit of K1.43 trillion, which we are planning to finance through accumulation of more debts. This means that by the end of 2024-2025 financial year, our debt will accumulate to almost K14 trillion.
In December 2023, the World Bank warned that record debt levels could put developing countries in crisis after noting that the escalating cost of servicing past borrowing caused by rising interest rates was siphoning money away from spending on essentials. “Every quarter that interest rates stay high, results in more developing countries becoming distressed – and facing the difficult choice of servicing their public debts or investing in public health, education, and infrastructure. And it might result into another lost decade.’’ They continued to say
Someone would argue that we need to borrow more to finance development and pay for recurring expenditures. However, our appetite for debt should be tamed. For example, in 2020/21 Parliament approved a budget amounting to K2.2 trillion but by the end of that year government had over spent by a whooping K157 billion just in a single fiscal year. I won’t go in details regarding how the money was used. Let me admit that external borrowing, predominantly sourced from multilateral institutions and bilateral donors, has played a pivotal role in financing Malawi’s development aspirations. However, the accumulation of debt, compounded by high interest rates and stringent repayment terms, has exerted immense pressure on the country’s fiscal sustainability.
Concessional loans, characterized by favorable terms and extended grace periods, have provided a lifeline for Malawi’s development initiatives. Yet, the allure of concessional financing has been tempered by the increase of non-concessional loans, burdened with heavy repayment conditions and higher interest rates, exacerbating the nation’s debt distress. This debt burden however, has crippled the country’s economy, stifling growth and hindering poverty alleviation efforts. Scarce resources that could otherwise be channeled into vital sectors such as healthcare and education are diverted towards servicing debt obligations, constraining fiscal space and impeding socio-economic progress.
Furthermore, the legacy of previous debts looms large, casting a shadow of uncertainty over Malawi’s economic future. Historical debt mismanagement and lack of fiscal discipline have left the nation vulnerable to external shocks, exacerbating the challenges posed by the current debt burden. As we navigate the complexities of our national debt landscape as a country, a concerted effort towards fiscal consolidation and debt management is imperative. It is important for Malawi to put in place structural reforms aimed at enhancing revenue mobilization, improving debt transparency, and fostering prudent fiscal policies are essential to mitigate the adverse effects of debt accumulation. Initiatives such as debt restructuring and debt relief hold promise can provide much-needed breathing space for Malawi’s economy to recover and thrive. Collaboration with international partners and engagement with creditors are crucial in charting a path towards debt sustainability and economic resilience.
